Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.8%
Benfica
10.1%
Draw
4.2%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.84
Benfica
vs
0.48
Alverca
Markets
BTTS35.5%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.1%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.6%
3-0
13.8%
1-0
10.5%
4-0
9.8%
2-1
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
5-0
5.6%
1-1
4.7%
4-1
4.7%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
2.7%
0-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).