Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.7%
Padova
29.1%
Draw
40.2%
Catanzaro
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Padova
vs
1.37
Catanzaro
Markets
BTTS52.8%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.9%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).