Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.1%
Chaves
25.3%
Draw
48.6%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.99
Chaves
vs
1.46
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.544.2%
Over 3.523.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.2%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
0-3
4.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-0
4.2%
2-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).