Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.4%
Nacional
24.9%
Draw
26.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Nacional
vs
1.28
Arouca
Markets
BTTS60.7%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.558.9%
Over 3.536.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
5.2%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).