Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.3%
Vallecano
25.5%
Draw
13.2%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Vallecano
vs
0.54
Lugo
Markets
BTTS32.2%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.560.4%
Over 2.533.5%
Over 3.515.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.6%
2-0
14.7%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
3-1
4.0%
1-2
2.8%
4-0
2.8%
2-2
2.1%
0-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).