Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.2%
Arsenal
22.8%
Draw
14.0%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.07
Arsenal
vs
0.90
Brentford
Markets
BTTS53.1%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.557.0%
Over 3.534.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
4-0
3.9%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).