Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Chelsea
25.7%
Draw
15.1%
Nottingham Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80
Chelsea
vs
0.81
Nottingham Forest
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-0
11.9%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.2%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).