Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.0%
Santander
14.8%
Draw
7.2%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.41
Santander
vs
0.58
Lugo
Markets
BTTS40.2%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.579.9%
Over 2.557.5%
Over 3.535.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.6%
1-0
12.2%
3-0
11.7%
2-1
8.5%
4-0
7.0%
1-1
7.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
4.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.4%
0-1
3.0%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).