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30 Sept 2025 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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47.5%
Derby
30.5%
Draw
22.0%
Charlton

Expected Goals (xG)

1.32

Derby

vs
0.82

Charlton

Markets

BTTS42.0%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.5%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-2
1.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).