Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.5%
Derby
30.5%
Draw
22.0%
Charlton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Derby
vs
0.82
Charlton
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).