Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.5%
Valenciennes
35.1%
Draw
35.4%
Bastia
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Valenciennes
vs
0.79
Bastia
Markets
BTTS26.0%
Over 0.578.0%
Over 1.542.3%
Over 2.518.4%
Over 3.56.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
22.0%
0-1
19.0%
1-0
16.7%
1-1
11.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.4%
1-2
4.9%
2-1
4.2%
0-3
1.9%
2-2
1.7%
1-3
1.3%
3-0
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).