Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.4%
Brighton
28.0%
Draw
30.6%
Bournemouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Brighton
vs
1.31
Bournemouth
Markets
BTTS59.2%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).