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14 Sept 2024 · 11:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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23.1%
Fakel
44.3%
Draw
32.6%
Bodrum FK

Expected Goals (xG)

0.52

Fakel

vs
0.67

Bodrum FK

Markets

BTTS21.3%
Over 0.568.6%
Over 1.535.0%
Over 2.512.0%
Over 3.53.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-0
31.4%
0-1
19.1%
1-0
14.6%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
4.2%
1-2
3.6%
2-1
2.8%
0-3
1.5%
2-2
0.9%
1-3
0.8%
3-0
0.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).