Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.0%
Aston Villa
15.6%
Draw
5.4%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.53
Aston Villa
vs
0.57
Southampton
Markets
BTTS41.1%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.560.0%
Over 3.537.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
3-0
12.1%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
7.7%
1-1
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
4-1
4.4%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
2.4%
5-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).