Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.1%
Luton
30.6%
Draw
37.3%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Luton
vs
1.20
Watford
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
3.2%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).