Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.4%
Real Madrid
11.6%
Draw
5.9%
Sevilla
Expected Goals (xG)
3.02
Real Madrid
vs
0.74
Sevilla
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.589.1%
Over 2.572.5%
Over 3.551.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
4-0
8.1%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
6.8%
4-1
6.0%
1-1
5.4%
5-0
4.9%
5-1
3.6%
3-2
2.9%
2-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).