Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.8%
Ponferradina
23.3%
Draw
19.8%
Cartagena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Ponferradina
vs
0.92
Cartagena
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.549.8%
Over 3.527.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).