Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Nacional
30.8%
Draw
25.1%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Nacional
vs
0.73
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS33.8%
Over 0.584.3%
Over 1.553.7%
Over 2.527.4%
Over 3.511.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.2%
0-0
15.7%
0-1
12.5%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.7%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.5%
2-2
2.6%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).