Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.1%
Oxford
24.8%
Draw
42.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Oxford
vs
1.33
Derby
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.2%
1-1
11.7%
1-0
10.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-0
7.3%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
4.9%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).