Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Almeria
21.7%
Draw
30.2%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.95
Almeria
vs
1.51
Malaga
Markets
BTTS66.8%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.585.9%
Over 2.567.3%
Over 3.545.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.8%
3-2
4.4%
3-0
3.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).