Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.2%
Watford
31.9%
Draw
27.9%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Watford
vs
1.01
Southampton
Markets
BTTS47.4%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.539.6%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.0%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).