Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.7%
Spal
28.0%
Draw
24.2%
Cesena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Spal
vs
1.03
Cesena
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.525.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).