Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.4%
Port Vale
17.8%
Draw
11.8%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16
Port Vale
vs
0.74
Newport County
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.8%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.2%
1-1
8.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.1%
4-0
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
4-1
3.7%
2-2
3.5%
1-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).