Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.8%
Port Vale
28.2%
Draw
36.0%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Port Vale
vs
1.02
Northampton
Markets
BTTS39.7%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.559.3%
Over 2.533.4%
Over 3.515.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.4%
1-0
14.4%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
6.9%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
3.5%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
2.3%
0-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).