Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.5%
Casa Pia
22.8%
Draw
20.7%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Casa Pia
vs
0.93
Chaves
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
10.8%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.1%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).