Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.0%
Spal
28.5%
Draw
17.5%
Cittadella
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Spal
vs
0.75
Cittadella
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
11.9%
0-0
11.7%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).