Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.0%
Newport County
24.9%
Draw
40.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Newport County
vs
1.38
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS53.4%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.3%
0-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).