Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.1%
Derby
18.5%
Draw
11.5%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Derby
vs
0.61
Burton
Markets
BTTS38.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.571.9%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
2-0
14.7%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.4%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.5%
4-0
4.7%
4-1
2.9%
1-2
2.8%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).