Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.6%
Northampton
23.5%
Draw
14.0%
Crawley Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Northampton
vs
0.60
Crawley Town
Markets
BTTS35.8%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.0%
2-0
14.2%
0-0
10.4%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
7.7%
0-1
6.9%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
3.2%
4-0
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
0-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).