Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.4%
Chaves
25.5%
Draw
42.1%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Chaves
vs
1.37
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
0-0
7.4%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).