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04 Oct 2024 · 18:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.0%
Widzew Lodz
31.2%
Draw
31.8%
Korona Kielce

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

Widzew Lodz

vs
1.06

Korona Kielce

Markets

BTTS46.0%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).