Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.2%
Aves
28.0%
Draw
30.8%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Aves
vs
0.98
Setubal
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.536.9%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).