Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.8%
Almeria
21.7%
Draw
53.4%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Almeria
vs
2.08
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS65.8%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.586.3%
Over 2.567.2%
Over 3.545.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-1
6.2%
0-3
4.7%
2-3
4.5%
1-0
4.0%
0-0
3.5%
1-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).