Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.9%
Luton
28.8%
Draw
43.3%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Luton
vs
1.38
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
4.9%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
4.1%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).