Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.4%
Arouca
25.8%
Draw
33.8%
Vitória Guimarães
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Arouca
vs
1.45
Vitória Guimarães
Markets
BTTS61.8%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
0-0
5.6%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).