Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.5%
Swansea
29.4%
Draw
33.1%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Swansea
vs
1.16
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
2.9%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).