Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.1%
Wrexham
19.7%
Draw
11.1%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Wrexham
vs
0.54
Burton
Markets
BTTS34.3%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.542.0%
Over 3.521.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.9%
2-0
15.6%
3-0
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
1-1
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
4-0
4.3%
1-2
2.5%
4-1
2.3%
2-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).