Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.7%
Swindon
26.9%
Draw
33.4%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Swindon
vs
1.11
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).