Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →81.8%
Sp Braga
11.2%
Draw
7.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.04
Sp Braga
vs
0.81
Arouca
Markets
BTTS52.5%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.589.4%
Over 2.573.8%
Over 3.553.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.0%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
7.6%
1-0
6.7%
4-1
6.1%
1-1
5.0%
5-0
4.6%
5-1
3.7%
3-2
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).