Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.5%
Watford
15.0%
Draw
79.5%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
0.62
Watford
vs
2.64
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.563.1%
Over 3.540.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.4%
0-3
11.8%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.3%
0-4
7.8%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
7.2%
1-4
4.8%
0-0
4.7%
0-5
4.1%
2-2
2.6%
1-5
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).