Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.7%
Arouca
23.0%
Draw
40.2%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Arouca
vs
1.57
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS61.0%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.559.1%
Over 3.536.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
2-0
5.2%
1-3
4.5%
0-0
4.2%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).