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28 Sept 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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16.1%
Harrogate
24.4%
Draw
59.6%
Bradford

Expected Goals (xG)

0.66

Harrogate

vs
1.56

Bradford

Markets

BTTS37.8%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
17.4%
0-2
13.2%
1-1
10.7%
0-0
10.4%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-3
6.9%
1-3
4.5%
2-1
3.7%
2-2
2.9%
0-4
2.7%
2-0
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).