Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.3%
Nacional
28.8%
Draw
41.9%
Gil Vicente
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Nacional
vs
1.37
Gil Vicente
Markets
BTTS51.0%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.571.9%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
9.3%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).