Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.5%
Manchester City
24.8%
Draw
21.7%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.94
Manchester City
vs
1.19
Brentford
Markets
BTTS61.1%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.7%
3-0
5.3%
0-1
3.8%
3-2
3.8%
0-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).