Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.9%
Moreirense
21.9%
Draw
16.2%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Moreirense
vs
0.77
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS43.9%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
2-0
12.4%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.6%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).