Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.5%
Stevenage
26.2%
Draw
17.3%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Stevenage
vs
0.60
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS32.6%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.557.4%
Over 2.531.3%
Over 3.513.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
20.1%
0-0
13.1%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
10.5%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
3.6%
1-2
3.4%
0-2
2.5%
2-2
2.3%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).