Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.0%
Estrela
28.7%
Draw
34.3%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Estrela
vs
1.24
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).