Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.2%
Guimaraes
26.7%
Draw
27.1%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Guimaraes
vs
0.95
Setubal
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.540.0%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
9.6%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).