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16 Aug 2024 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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26.0%
Brescia
30.1%
Draw
43.9%
Palermo

Expected Goals (xG)

0.98

Brescia

vs
1.35

Palermo

Markets

BTTS47.6%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.1%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.0%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.7%
2-2
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).