Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.7%
Guimaraes
23.5%
Draw
23.8%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Guimaraes
vs
1.01
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS50.9%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.549.7%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.0%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).