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17 Jan 2026 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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35.4%
Alverca
29.2%
Draw
35.3%
Moreirense

Expected Goals (xG)

1.20

Alverca

vs
1.20

Moreirense

Markets

BTTS49.7%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
10.1%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).